iPhone 17 Demand Surges: Kuo Says Launch Outpaces iPhone 16 by a Wide Margin

Pre-orders Fly Higher Than Last Year’s Model

According to noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the iPhone 17 series has kicked off with stronger demand than the iPhone 16 lineup did in its first weekend.

Apple has planned about 25% higher production in the third quarter of this year for the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max models compared to the same period in 2024 with the iPhone 16 series. That suggests that Apple is anticipating the higher demand.

iPhone 17 Pro Max Stars in the Lineup

The Pro Max model is clearly the standout. Its production is reportedly up by around 60% year-on-year compared to the iPhone 16 Pro Max. Despite the increase in output, shipping or delivery delays are similar to what the 16 Pro Max saw, which Kuo interprets as a sign that demand is strong.

The iPhone Air: More Questions Than Answers

One model raising eyebrows is the iPhone Air:

It is the only new model in the 17 lineup that is readily available at launch in many markets, which could be read two ways: either demand is well-matched or Apple overestimated.
Apple has geared up production: the iPhone Air is being produced at approximately three times the level of what the iPhone 16 Plus had last year.
But even so, some colors or storage variants of the Air are showing delays or backorders, which hints that demand is building—or that specific versions are more popular.

What the Lead Times Reveal

A key signal for Kuo is the lead time or estimated delivery date slipping:

For the Pro Max, Pro, and standard iPhone 17 models, delivery lead times are only about a week longer than for the equivalent 16 models at the same stage last year—even though production has been raised by ~25%. This is interpreted as demand being strong enough to consume the extra units.
The Pro Max remains sought-after, as its delivery times slipped quickly, meaning many pre-orders are delaying actual delivery.

Implications for Apple

Strong early demand usually means a good outlook for Apple’s upcoming quarterly financials. It suggests buyers are upgrading or switching faster than last year. But there are also some cautionary points:

Overproduction risk: If Apple overestimated demand (especially for the Air), some inventory could remain unsold.
Variant demand differences: Some versions (color, storage) are more delayed/backordered, which could generate uneven sales across variants.
Comparisons may shift: The Air has no direct historical equivalent in the lineup, making it harder to benchmark until more weeks’ data rolls in.

What We Don’t Yet Know

Exact numbers: Apple hasn’t released full figures, so all is based on analyst estimates, supply chain sources, and delivery lead times.
Long-term demand: Whether this burst will sustain over the lifespan of iPhone 17, or whether demand will drop after the initial push.
Regional breakdown: Which markets are contributing most to the demand spike (China, US, Europe etc.) and whether some regions are weaker.

Final Word

The early signs are very positive for the iPhone 17 lineup. With preorders exceeding last year’s start, especially for the Pro Max and Pro variants, Apple appears to have reversed some of the softer signals seen during the iPhone 16 launch. The iPhone Air remains a wildcard—high expectations, but mixed evidence so far. Buyers should watch how the demand trends evolve over the next few weeks to get a clearer picture.